The National Australia Bank on Friday advanced expectations of an initial rate hike until mid-2023, followed by a series of “relatively aggressive” increases bringing the spot rate to 2% by 2024.
Separate data from the RBA on Friday showed that home credit was growing at its fastest annual rate since September 2016. For real estate investors, it is growing at its fastest pace since early 2018. Low interest rates have was one of the main drivers of the real estate boom during the pandemic. , driving up prices. Demand for housing also contributed to rising construction costs, which fueled inflation in the last quarter.
A faster-than-expected economic rebound is also likely to contribute to an earlier rate hike.
Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics released on Friday showed retail turnover increased 1.3% in September and 1.7% on the year. It was the first increase since May, with buyers starting to spend as restrictions eased.
But revenue fell 12% in ACT and 2.1% in Victoria on the month, bringing the latter to its lowest level in nearly a year.
All other states saw an increase in monthly turnover, led by Queensland at 5.2%. While spending rose 2.3% in New South Wales, it is still 11.9% lower than its pre-lockout peak.
Commonwealth Bank Senior Economist Kristina Clifton said the nationwide increase in retail was stronger than expected, but adjusting for inflation, spending volume fell by around 5% in the during the quarter.
“We expect third quarter GDP to show a drop in consumer spending of around 7 percent,” she said. ABC’s card household spending data rebounds rapidly as lockdowns end, suggesting a strong pickup in spending in the final months of the year and into 2022.